CrowdClarity Accurately Predicts Results of the Oscars
CrowdClarity beats Nate Silver… AGAIN!
After beating Nate Silver in predicting the 2008 election results, CrowdClarity is back for more. Yet again, our unpaid, untrained volunteers were able to predict the Oscars results with more accuracy than any expert out there.
(Chart of data from “Most Oscars Won” Market – Click to Expand)
The most interesting thing about this is that with only 13 active participants, we were able to predict 13 out of 14 Oscar winners. The reason that this works is that the participants weight their picks based on how much they believe in them by choosing the amount of points they want to place on their pick. This measure of confidence gives the market a precision that beats a poll 3 times out of 4 – even with small numbers of people.
Additionally, the realtime ability to ‘cash out’ the points that a user placed on their initial prediction, in order to spend those points on a different prediction, allows our users to quickly respond to changes regarding the market – in this case, the Oscars. By enabling this activity, our software does more than simply poll a user group at one instance of time – it adapts to its environment from market open to market close.
This same dynamic can be used to accurately predict otherwise difficult-to-predict things for companies – such as sales or project delivery dates. This is what CrowdClarity is all about!