CrowdClarity accurately predicts the points spread in the OSU-Michigan game
As sad as the outcome was for a dyed in the wool Michigan fan, there was a silver lining. The prediction market that we had set up at one of our CrowdClarity beta customers very accurately predicted the actual outcome of the game.
The market we set up was “What will the outcome and points difference be for the OSU-Michigan game?”
The actual outcome was 42-7 for OSU – a points spread of 35. This corresponded with the “OSU by more than 26 points” outcome of our market – which was the outcome favored by the market participants.
Even more astounding was the fact that all of these participants live and work in Ann Arbor, Michigan and most of them are also dyed in the wool Michigan fans.
The astute amongst you will notice that there was a little bit of “hope” reflected in the market (as well as the well known fact that upsets can happen in rivalry games) by the slight over-weighting of the outcomes where Michigan wins by a small margin of 1 touchdown or less.